"There will be a talk between North Korea and the U.S. soon" by Jeong Se Hyeon, the Former Minister of Unification

Jeong Se Hyeon(정세현), from 프레시안

Jeong Se Hyun(정세현), the former minister of the Department of Unification(통일부) came out in one of the most popular politics talkshow, 'Papa Is(파파이스)' and revealed quite unique stances and solutions over the tension in East Asia. They are quite interesting that I thought it would be beneficial to share his words with more people(English translation could be good). 

 His unique stances and solutions over the North Korea's nuclear arms experiments are not the only reasons why I thought his talk in the show was worth being translated to English and shared. His career records themselves show how worth listening his words are. He took a crucial role as the minister of the Department of Unification(통일부) in both Kim Dae Jung's administration and Roh Moo Hyeon's, when there was rapid progress of the relationship between South Korea and North Korea. Practically he led the administrations' conversations with North Korea. He met the North Korean leader, Kim Jung Il(김정일) several times and the rest high ranked officials hundreds of times. He has direct experiences over North Korean politics and diplomacy, which makes him different from other opionion makers and scholars who have never talked with North Korean diplomats at all. 

From Youtube

  For the readers who don't know about the talkshow 'Papa Is(파파이스)', it is the politics talkshow hosted by 'Kim Eo Jun'(김어준), a weirdo of the current Korean society. He is the pioneer who ventured to make a new media environment in Korea. He started his own podcasting show,'Nakkomsu(나꼼수)' in 2011 and make a destructive but creative stirrs on journalism. I will introduce him more specifically next time. 'Q' is Kim Eo Jun and another show hostess Song Chae Kyoung Hwa(송채경화) and 'A' is Jeong Se Hyeon(정세현)

Kim Eo Jun(김어준), from Kyobobook.com

Q: Main newspapers, cable news channels were talking about high possibility of the war in Korean Peninsula. But you mentioned the issue of defense bugdets of the U.S. and kept saying that there wouldn't be a war at all.  Then, why do you think U.S. President Trump react so overly?

A: As you know,  there was harsh verbal war between North Korea and the U. S. which led 'the Rumor of August Crisis(8월 위기설).' Trump expressed his anger with tough words like 'Fast and Furious.' But I claimed that there would be no war between the two. Basically, the U.S can't afford the war. Let's look back the case of Youngbyeon(영변) in 1994. Actually the U.S prepared for air strikes against the nuclear facilities in North Korea. It thought it would take just 3 days to end the situation. But the bigger concern was the concequences after the strikes. North Korean military reaction was strong enough to make Seoul destroyed in a moment. If it had happened, it could have been the Second Korean War. The casualties could have been catastrophic.  For the recovery after the war, it might have taken more than 300 billion dollars. And the U.S. might have taken all the responsibilities, even moral ones.At that moment, Kim Il Sung(김일성) suggested the summit between him and the South Korean president. The war didn't take place.  Cosidering the current situation, there is no specific information where the nuclear arms exists. Even if one of them  is destroyed, the consequences will be overwhelming including radioactive pollutions spread out. North Korea will do military counteraction and China won't stand watching it, which the U.S. can't afford deal with. That's why I reiterated there wouldn't a war between North Korea and the U.S.

Q: Then, why was Trump so furious?

A: The fiscal year of the U.S. administration starts in October. August is the peak time for assessing the budget plan. The MIC(Military Industrial Complex) and the scholars related to them spread the rumors over the possibility of the war and the atmosphere of tension. Then the bugdet is not cut down. Specifically, the defense budget for the Pacific area won't be slashed down. But I don't mean that Trump intended it.  He was just emotional. 

Q: South Korean president Moon repeatedly emphasized that there won't be any kind of war in Korean Peninsula without South Korea's permission or agreement. What's the reality of 'the Wartime Control'  between South Korea and the U.S.?

A:  Moon and Trump had already agreed on that. President Moon said South Korea will face catastrophic disasters if the war takes place.  Millions of people will die.  For such a serious decision, it does not make sense U.S. alone decides to have a war in Korean Peninsula. After the conversation, President Trump soothed his attitude against North Korea. But it is true that many media, especially conservative newspapers in South Korea reiterated that the U.S. can preemept North Korea. 

Q: Then, what's wrong with the media? I think they should have said that a third country can not make that critical decision on Korean Peninsula. There are no media which said so except for Hangyeorae(한겨레). Anyway, what's necessary for resumption of talk between South Korea and North Korea? 

A: The new administration should have sent a special envoy to North Korea right after the four special envoys came back. South Korea should have taken a mediator role between the U.S. and North Korea. But it didn't. The recovery of the relationship between South Korea and North Korea won't take a long time because of the experience of 10 years during the Kim Dae Jung and Roh Mu Hyeon's  administrations.  The problem is that the new administration just followed the tracks U.S and Japan agreed on; sanctions. 

Q: Do you think North Korea wanted the special envoy from the new administration to come?

Choi Son Hui(최선희), from JoongAngIlbo(중앙일보)

A: From my experiences, they were waiting for the special envoy. North Korea wants South Korea to intervene between North Korea and the U.S.  Actually, Kim Dae Jung and Roh Mu Hyeon's administrations promoted the conversation between North Korea and the U.S. That's why North Korea was quite cooperative for a while. But Bush administration broke the compromises and North Korea commited nuclear experiments. For the current situation, the U.S. government has soothed its harsh stance first. There is a kind of atmosphere for the resumption of conversation.  Recently Choi Son Hui(최선희), the Chief Director of the Department of the U.S of North Korea said she wanted to visit the U.S., which implies that there is a conversation ongoing behind the curtains between North Korea and the U. S. I guess they are moving to make a kind of momentum to have a table for serious talk.  There could be any conversation even in New York, when it is the best time to send a special envoy and suggest something attractive. Then, there will be recovery of channels of communication between South Korea and North Korea.  South Korea can take the mediator role. 

Q: You think it is a good opportunity.

A:  When the rumors of the conversation become real, South Korea should swiftly join in.  South Korean government should prepare for the moment.  It may be after August. There is Ulji Freedom Gurdian Drill(을지프리덤가디언훈련). 'Come September!' There will be a great timing to resume the talk in September. 

Q: What is the best attitude towards the missiles?

A: North Korea has experiences that  it brought the U.S. to the table, but  got a answer that it hadn't wanted.  To get a better position, it will do something provocative. Missiles and the nuclear arms are their tools to bring the U.S. to the table. North Korea has the experiences. Look at the example of 'Guam.' U.S. shrank. 

Q: Then, North Korea would do two-track strategies to keep doing the experiments and and trying to have dialogues with the U.S.

A: Depending on the characters of the U.S. administration, the approaches have been different.  Sometimes, talk was prefered, and sometimes not.  Clinton's administration  prefered talk, and until 2002  there was no nuclear issue from North Korea.  But Bush broke the compromise and tried to press down North Korea. In 2006, North Korea did nuclear experiments. Then in November that year, Bush suggested conversation. They made an another agreement in 2007.  But the government changed.  North Korea's brinkmanship(벼랑끝 전술) worked. Then, let's look at the current situation. U.S. tried to sanction North Korea, but economic growth rate of North Korea in 2016 was 3.9%.  Santions didn't work. The U.S. blames China. But the U.S. misunderstands the relationship between North Korea and the China.  The U. S. tends to think that less powerfull ally country will be obedient to the more powerful ally country like the case of the agreement over 'Comfort Women' issue between South Korea and Japan which was made under the pressure by the U.S. government to both sides. But North Korea is not under control by China. During the 50s and 60s, North Korea pursued 'Equidstand Dimplomacy(등거리 외교)' bewteen China and the Soviet to get the most. North Korea made them compete each other. North Korea doesn't trust China. Kim Jung Il has said so to me before.  

[Papa Is#155(2017/8/18)]